FORECAST REVISION

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 1 · revision 1

2026 · Week 1 · 17 matchups

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Experimental picks: the scoring formula is transparent, but its real-season accuracy is not established yet.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used
Configuration
Revision 1
Engine version
3.6.0-bounded-insane-controls
Evidence cutoff
Aug 26, 2026 · 9:47 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor keyNormalized share
preseason_portal0.176471
preseason_recruiting0.294118
preseason_returning0.235294
preseason_talent0.294118
Retained calibration/contextFrozen value
versionprovisional-all-slates-policy-v1
calibration_kinddocumented_policy
validation_statusnot_historically_validated
applied_home_field_points2.5
applied_fcs_baseline_z-1.5
residual_scale13.0
residual_scale_sourcedocumented_policy_not_validated
intercept0.0
difference_coefficient7.0
home_field_coefficient2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.