FROZEN PREDICTION

Middle Tennessee vs Marshall

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Middle Tennessee by 4.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T16:33:24.574897-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.3624 · 80% margin interval -21.2 to 12.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.11441441441441443	-0.20755678639116354
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042905405405405404	-0.10127108177325848
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07150900900900901	-0.12087369548168912
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07150900900900901	-0.09753187659811492
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.03547297297297297	0.026924553478257354
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	0.04773891874913484
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	-0.01343654319820562
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	0.1025380640772877
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.030948045956756386
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08581081081081081	-0.17761406503140156
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0568362480127186	0.05720720720720721	-0.1385722193212814
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042905405405405404	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08108108108108109	-0.029791680331331838
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042905405405405404	-0.08727448887666053
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.11441441441441443	-0.24511195904688654

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.