FROZEN PREDICTION

Illinois State vs Northern Illinois

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Northern Illinois by 6.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T17:05:23.700932-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.6954 · 80% margin interval -10.0 to 23.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.10810810810810811	0.07503678369534386
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.04054054054054054	-0.012953845362205937
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.04054054054054054
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.06756756756756757	0.046414264812772624
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.06756756756756757	0.05128357452561415
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.04054054054054054	-0.003972816346547503
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.05405405405405406	0.010840090879125547
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.06756756756756757	0.07519579422629753
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.05405405405405406	0.08397764977460372
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.06756756756756757	0.019145396273721443
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08108108108108109	0.057421355522821876
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.0568362480127186	0.05405405405405406	-0.022661703543940467
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.04054054054054054	0.060810810810810814
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08108108108108109	0.09182994129028979
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.04054054054054054	0.014785363415041275
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.10810810810810811	0.004448210703949462

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.