FROZEN PREDICTION

Tennessee vs Georgia Tech

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Tennessee by 7.7

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans away

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans away

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T17:38:40.898758-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.2771 · 80% margin interval -24.4 to 9.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11346251912289648	0.11441441441441443	-0.2632487269714826
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.042905405405405404	-0.06195642626489891
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02836562978072412	0.02702702702702703	-0.02682284750584769
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0709140744518103	0.07150900900900901	-0.14652536884605
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0709140744518103	0.07150900900900901	-0.1746976365369155
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.03547297297297297	0.04286080470166506
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	-0.017152644831020383
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	-0.076271025107171
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	-0.04125146751536429
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	-0.06667804850805797
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08509688934217237	0.08581081081081081	-0.17749547369674223
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05673125956144824	0.05720720720720721	-0.08476456681399483
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.042905405405405404	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.081081	0.08509688934217237	0.08108108108108109	-0.02973664885954949
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.042905405405405404	-0.08718947023785056
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11346251912289648	0.11441441441441443	-0.24482062835412827

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.