FROZEN PREDICTION

Charlotte vs Ole Miss

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Ole Miss by 6.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T17:38:40.898758-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.6953 · 80% margin interval -10.0 to 23.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11346251912289648	0.1141460609545716	-0.0754071216715764
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.04280477285796435	0.008654909936629632
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.02836562978072412	0.0285365152386429	0.05587058211811288
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0709140744518103	0.07134128809660725	0.00033035077149243947
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0709140744518103	0.07134128809660725	-0.11017423954284544
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.03547297297297297	0.041896918538958945
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	0.14923851904099258
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.14987265357801885
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	0.01708210549094381
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.1266401635162976
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08509688934217237	0.0856095457159287	0.00038605264261447336
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05673125956144824	0.0570730304772858	0.011861136472149385
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.04280477285796435	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.081081	0.08509688934217237	0.08108108108108109	-0.029736648859549464
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.04280477285796435	0.0002767628029345867
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11346251912289648	0.1141460609545716	0.24504187624385054

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.