FROZEN PREDICTION

Louisiana Tech vs LSU

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Louisiana Tech by 0.8

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T18:00:11.664085-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.4752 · 80% margin interval -17.5 to 15.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.11441441441441443	-0.2634096657890754
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042905405405405404	-0.000301380873720114
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07150900900900901	-0.16207874134843275
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07150900900900901	-0.20676645163620652
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.03547297297297297	0.04780875367022311
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	0.053821863578813606
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.1570133181631672
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	-0.07759637281524473
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.18729948161436044
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08581081081081081	-0.17761406503140156
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0568362480127186	0.05720720720720721	-0.00039419936751550894
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042905405405405404	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08108108108108109	-0.029791680331331866
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042905405405405404	-0.0002674787312331936
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.11441441441441443	-0.0005667309431410111

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.