FROZEN PREDICTION

New Mexico State vs Hawai'i

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

New Mexico State by 4.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T18:00:11.664085-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.3651 · 80% margin interval -21.1 to 12.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.1192368839427663	-0.23248885278710169
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	0.003594620723316455
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07452305246422894	-0.10587734105893817
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07452305246422894	-0.13645864503433608
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	0.019222644044824735
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.049650056220700955
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.03032409607316374
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.062461315822508814
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.008637231691524583
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08942766295707473	-0.18553702984307335
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05961844197138315	-0.05288219013507348
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08942766295707473	-0.2841850899486611
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	-0.04563304727907029
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.1192368839427663	-0.1282579867676987

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.