FROZEN PREDICTION

Montana State vs Nevada

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Nevada by 11.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T19:16:01.020117-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.8026 · 80% margin interval -5.6 to 27.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.10810810810810811	0.07503678369534388
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.04054054054054054	0.1069866661057863
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.04054054054054054
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.06756756756756757	0.046414264812772624
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.06756756756756757	0.051283574525614176
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.04054054054054054	0.030084494735735073
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.05405405405405406	0.014892136140828682
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.06756756756756757	0.05950691188746423
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.05405405405405406	0.06907623860165274
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.06756756756756757	0.02695195145299742
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08108108108108109	0.057421355522821876
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.0568362480127186	0.05405405405405406	0.14147805560399307
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.04054054054054054	0.060810810810810814
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08108108108108109	0.09182994129028976
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.04054054054054054	0.10179237356046862
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.10810810810810811	0.248993438807695

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.