FROZEN PREDICTION

Sacramento State vs Fresno State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Sacramento State by 3.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionAway data unavailable

Team talentAway data unavailable

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T20:09:48.651639-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.3943 · 80% margin interval -20.1 to 13.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.1192368839427663	-0.16542167223501997
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.044713831478537365	-0.03952459138461476
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07452305246422894	-0.06504193242018938
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07452305246422894	-0.12461058108425381
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.030405405405405407	-0.0107419425306549
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.04054054054054054	-0.024573005091169553
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05067567567567568	0.05862412231700208
Returning production	Measured	Data unavailable	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.04054054054054054	-0.006916555737445081
Team talent	Measured	Data unavailable	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05067567567567568	-0.031061538425167477
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08942766295707473	-0.18239435947460064
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0568362480127186	0.05961844197138315	-0.11052460914352356
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.044713831478537365	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08942766295707473	0.011223836591281039
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.044713831478537365	-0.043380053350606046
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.1192368839427663	-0.12053772340960439

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.