FROZEN PREDICTION

Oregon vs Oklahoma State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oregon by 2.5

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans away

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentModerately leans away

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.4231 · 80% margin interval -19.2 to 14.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11886792452830189	-0.00013772859355895561
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.044575471698113205	-0.037686453258028815
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.028571	0.02857142857142857	0.029716981132075472	-0.030262292325180077
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.07429245283018868	-0.00008684504786475589
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.07429245283018868	-0.00007914759862373555
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.0375	0.015899256354496225
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	-0.1171924321881632
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.049999999999999996	-0.13995124998651814
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	-0.10033357382274885
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08915094339622641	-0.00010148836666766525
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.05952380952380952	0.059433962264150944	-0.05157869723133893
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.044575471698113205	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08915094339622641	-0.00004709496020563128
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.044575471698113205	-0.00007275744736254947
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11886792452830189	-0.25597154164872116

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.