FROZEN PREDICTION

Western Kentucky vs Georgia

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Georgia by 15.2

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesHome data unavailable

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.8781 · 80% margin interval -1.5 to 31.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11968253968253968	0.11904761904761904	0.2756463573766594
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.04488095238095238	0.044642857142857144	0.12586994058596404
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.028571	0.02857142857142857	0.02857142857142857	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0748015873015873	0.0744047619047619	0.1857731184691815
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0748015873015873	0.0744047619047619	0.2143286424108439
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.0375	-0.03885654618573739
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	0.1698748824252791
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.049999999999999996	-0.02881631777347661
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	0.16632671948548858
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08976190476190476	0.08928571428571429	0.185871894534187
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.05984126984126984	0.05952380952380952	0.17223862840700918
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.04488095238095238	0.044642857142857144	0.0
Tough schedules	Data unavailable	Measured	0.085714	0.08571428571428572	0.08928571428571429	0.03120041113621
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.04488095238095238	0.044642857142857144	0.09135013130865466
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11968253968253968	0.11904761904761904	0.2565938036407639

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.