FROZEN PREDICTION

Mississippi State vs Minnesota

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Minnesota by 9.0

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesHome data unavailable

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.7546 · 80% margin interval -7.7 to 25.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11968253968253968	0.11904761904761904	0.2756463573766593
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.04488095238095238	0.044642857142857144	0.0002579164211836127
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.028571	0.02857142857142857	0.02857142857142857	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0748015873015873	0.0744047619047619	0.16422196793317823
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0748015873015873	0.0744047619047619	0.19636963282095607
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.0375	0.053869302666590464
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	-0.017653032408852867
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.049999999999999996	0.05955372339851836
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	-0.027745314600320085
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08976190476190476	0.08928571428571429	0.185871894534187
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.05984126984126984	0.05952380952380952	0.000337348846486063
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.04488095238095238	0.044642857142857144	0.0
Tough schedules	Data unavailable	Measured	0.085714	0.08571428571428572	0.08928571428571429	0.03120041113621003
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.04488095238095238	0.044642857142857144	0.00022890356727303662
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11968253968253968	0.11904761904761904	0.0004849983173274841

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.