FROZEN PREDICTION

Utah State vs Washington

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Washington by 5.5

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.6626 · 80% margin interval -11.2 to 22.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11968253968253968	-0.02601404806139719
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04488095238095238	0.046847788945601085
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.028571	0.02857142857142857	0.02857142857142857	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.0748015873015873	-0.04569063998516038
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.0748015873015873	-0.007800032127134496
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.0375	-0.11599562139765013
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	0.10863497532516803
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.049999999999999996	-0.02074774879690317
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	0.10127693319030016
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08976190476190476	0.00035859222889239595
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.05952380952380952	0.05984126984126984	0.06412726814375354
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04488095238095238	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08571428571428572	-0.03120041113621003
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04488095238095238	0.09137830405539596
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11968253968253968	0.25698972063450065

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.