FROZEN PREDICTION

Maryland vs UConn

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UConn by 0.8

Why this pick?

Game controlNeutral effect

Avoiding bad lossesNeutral effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans away

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentModerately leans away

Big-game winsNeutral effect

Recent formNeutral effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesNot used — data unavailable

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.5258 · 80% margin interval -15.8 to 17.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11968253968253968	0.11968253968253968	0.0
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.04488095238095238	0.04488095238095238	0.0
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.028571	0.02857142857142857	0.02857142857142857	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0748015873015873	0.0748015873015873	-0.021551150536003247
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0748015873015873	0.0748015873015873	-0.026938514384831663
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.0375	0.07316171370985868
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	-0.10130383010493768
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.049999999999999996	-0.09903207874818135
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	-0.061236672651682145
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08976190476190476	0.08976190476190476	0.0
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.05984126984126984	0.05984126984126984	0.0
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.04488095238095238	0.04488095238095238	0.0
Tough schedules	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.085714	0.08571428571428572	0.08571428571428572	0.0
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.04488095238095238	0.04488095238095238	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11968253968253968	0.11968253968253968	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.