FROZEN PREDICTION

UTSA vs Texas State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UTSA by 6.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.3017 · 80% margin interval -23.4 to 9.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11968253968253968	-0.24377840299598763
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04488095238095238	-0.11504577301793609
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.028571	0.02857142857142857	0.02857142857142857	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.0748015873015873	-0.11573187922717093
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.0748015873015873	-0.1335130992563489
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.0375	0.009170688348032434
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	0.0054281899578990656
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.049999999999999996	0.01748189944924248
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	-0.023306250975672647
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08976190476190476	-0.185871894534187
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.05952380952380952	0.05984126984126984	-0.15742564957402239
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04488095238095238	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08571428571428572	-0.03120041113621
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04488095238095238	-0.09135013130865466
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11968253968253968	-0.2565938036407639

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.