FROZEN PREDICTION

UNLV vs North Texas

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UNLV by 0.8

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans away

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.4745 · 80% margin interval -17.5 to 15.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.12345013477088948	-0.020939282598545758
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04629380053908356	-0.05110684604159951
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.028571	0.02857142857142857	0.03086253369272237	0.029183946955640125
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.07715633423180593	-0.060201679698052186
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.07715633423180593	0.001939116166281632
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.03214285714285714	0.019426690848502227
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.05357142857142857	-0.038744041395640604
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.04285714285714286	-0.03211127604157726
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.05357142857142857	-0.058439137918742376
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.09258760107816712	0.002486464983357653
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.05952380952380952	0.06172506738544474	-0.09657071949964448
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04629380053908356	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.09258760107816712	0.0011538265250372326
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04629380053908356	-0.04546293948929999
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.12345013477088948	-0.126681765914565

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.