FROZEN PREDICTION

Alabama State vs Troy

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Troy by 10.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.7886 · 80% margin interval -6.2 to 27.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.114286	0.11886792452830189	0.11428571428571428	0.08032110678931535
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.04285714285714286	0.05523608410835633
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.028571	0.029716981132075472	0.02857142857142857	0.07311943518232293
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.071429	0.07429245283018868	0.07142857142857142	0.049694857980322256
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.071429	0.07429245283018868	0.07142857142857142	0.05478672065325459
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.042857	0.0375	0.04285714285714286	0.025282230339811175
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.071429	0.0625	0.07142857142857142	0.08578305839695813
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.05714285714285714	0.07263923466571987
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.071429	0.0625	0.07142857142857142	0.0626509142844395
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.085714	0.08915094339622641	0.08571428571428572	0.0614368740207718
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.057143	0.059433962264150944	0.05714285714285714	0.07040689277333803
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.04285714285714286	0.06428571428571428
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.085714	0.08915094339622641	0.08571428571428572	0.09741811239542417
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.04285714285714286	0.01615666285538945
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.114286	0.11886792452830189	0.11428571428571428	0.26222849225275746

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.