FROZEN PREDICTION

Memphis vs Boise State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Memphis by 0.8

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.4740 · 80% margin interval -17.5 to 15.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11886792452830189	0.12345013477088948	-0.01774663387661997
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.04629380053908356	-0.023151092445284408
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.028571	0.029716981132075472	0.03086253369272237	-0.059529565968466466
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.07429245283018868	0.07715633423180593	0.0022145487205512265
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.07429245283018868	0.07715633423180593	-0.03777902996176508
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.03214285714285714	-0.06519595718836839
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.05357142857142857	0.007369289864009362
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.04285714285714286	0.10659126684142359
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.05357142857142857	-0.026300770718275517
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08915094339622641	0.09258760107816712	-0.014467888740641748
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.059433962264150944	0.06172506738544474	-0.046849112102479606
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.04629380053908356	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08915094339622641	0.09258760107816712	0.001200921485242805
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.04629380053908356	-0.04539018204193744
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11886792452830189	0.12345013477088948	-0.25922244969988706

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.