FROZEN PREDICTION

Jacksonville State vs Ohio

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Jacksonville State by 6.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.3149 · 80% margin interval -22.9 to 10.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.12380952380952381	-0.2331762142025928
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04642857142857143	-0.0011448118641270294
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.028571	0.02857142857142857	0.02857142857142857	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.07738095238095238	-0.13927558466083098
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.07738095238095238	-0.1310173693047613
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.03214285714285714	0.0011532451772376245
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.05357142857142857	0.007781382605564713
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.04285714285714286	0.02700334156229765
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.05357142857142857	-0.03246358069559133
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.09285714285714286	-0.18996278596925126
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.05952380952380952	0.06190476190476191	-0.0793454309865478
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04642857142857143	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.09285714285714286	-0.30977183970763855
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04642857142857143	-0.04545496607041095
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.12380952380952381	-0.12656971393520555

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.