FROZEN PREDICTION

Buffalo vs Florida International

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Buffalo by 2.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.4107 · 80% margin interval -19.6 to 13.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11945288753799392	-0.11095736244303886
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04479483282674772	-0.0250976598009282
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.028571	0.02857142857142857	0.02986322188449848	-0.030411216617994685
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.0746580547112462	-0.11024275887625527
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.0746580547112462	-0.02581022926940225
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.0375	-0.04449482124415732
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	-0.0007426494425329458
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.049999999999999996	0.055999710873122915
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	0.023002844944545277
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08958966565349544	-0.18564425082094282
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.05952380952380952	0.05972644376899696	-0.034336426802986236
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04479483282674772	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08571428571428572	-0.03120041113621003
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04479483282674772	0.00016409126426446263
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11945288753799392	-0.25641837871747525

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.