FROZEN PREDICTION

Tulsa vs Sam Houston

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Tulsa by 0.7

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans away

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.4783 · 80% margin interval -17.4 to 16.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11886792452830189	0.11904761904761904	0.0001377285935589695
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.044642857142857144	-0.03047584513780297
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.028571	0.029716981132075472	0.02857142857142857	-0.028100700016238638
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.07429245283018868	0.0744047619047619	0.00008684504786475589
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.07429245283018868	0.0744047619047619	0.00007914759862368004
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.0375	0.04877447580657245
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	-0.036849110404451366
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.049999999999999996	0.03150584076566778
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	-0.05481380036197145
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08915094339622641	0.08928571428571429	0.00010148836666766525
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.059433962264150944	0.05952380952380952	-0.04170207258301285
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.044642857142857144	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08915094339622641	0.08928571428571429	0.000047094960205603525
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.044642857142857144	-0.09104847029401908
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11886792452830189	0.11904761904761904	-0.2558594896693617

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.