FROZEN PREDICTION

Bowling Green vs Nebraska

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Nebraska by 7.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.7168 · 80% margin interval -9.2 to 24.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11945288753799392	-0.05264488708284187
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04479483282674772	0.06289795382035426
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.028571	0.02857142857142857	0.02986322188449848	0.028238986859566488
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.0746580547112462	-0.09411041094906339
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.0746580547112462	0.00017850309476852289
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.0375	0.06568930098183226
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	0.07288976698538588
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.049999999999999996	0.08423970229113001
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	0.13727022405218917
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08958966565349544	0.00022888865673982572
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.05952380952380952	0.05972644376899696	0.08608642823650045
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04479483282674772	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08571428571428572	-0.03120041113621
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04479483282674772	0.09128531900564608
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11945288753799392	0.2566710916922008

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.