FROZEN PREDICTION

Tennessee vs Georgia Tech

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Tennessee by 8.1

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans away

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans away

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.2679 · 80% margin interval -24.7 to 8.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11886792452830189	0.11968253968253968	-0.2755086287831004
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.04488095238095238	-0.0648338710624368
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.028571	0.029716981132075472	0.02857142857142857	-0.028100700016238638
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.07429245283018868	0.0748015873015873	-0.15335954761731185
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.07429245283018868	0.0748015873015873	-0.18282122802991654
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.0375	0.045309993541760206
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	-0.08062936939900933
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.049999999999999996	-0.04360869423052796
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	-0.07048822270851841
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08915094339622641	0.08976190476190476	-0.18577040616751933
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.059433962264150944	0.05984126984126984	-0.08870575369962735
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.04488095238095238	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.085714	0.08915094339622641	0.08571428571428572	-0.031153316176004427
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.04488095238095238	-0.09127737386129212
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11886792452830189	0.11968253968253968	-0.2563444879866892

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.