FROZEN PREDICTION

Lindenwood vs Missouri State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Missouri State by 7.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.7059 · 80% margin interval -9.6 to 23.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11428571428571428	0.0801833781957564
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04285714285714286	-0.01296698090713877
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	FCS baseline estimate	0.028571	0.02857142857142857	0.02857142857142857	0.04285714285714286
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.07142857142857142	0.0496080129324575
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.07142857142857142	0.05470757305463086
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.042857	0.0375	0.04285714285714286	0.1294884223833796
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.071429	0.0625	0.07142857142857142	0.0029457026115784907
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.05714285714285714	0.06495488325945944
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.071429	0.0625	0.07142857142857142	0.014343306176111334
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08571428571428572	0.06133538565410414
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.057143	0.05952380952380952	0.05714285714285714	-0.022934085130100812
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04285714285714286	0.06428571428571428
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08571428571428572	0.09737101743521856
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04285714285714286	0.0160839054080269
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11428571428571428	0.006256950604036332

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.