FROZEN PREDICTION

Ohio State vs Texas

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas by 2.8

Why this pick?

Game controlNeutral effect

Avoiding bad lossesNeutral effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessNeutral effect

Scoring punchNeutral effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Recruiting strengthNeutral effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentNeutral effect

Big-game winsNeutral effect

Recent formNeutral effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesNeutral effect

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.5861 · 80% margin interval -13.8 to 19.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11904761904761904	0.0
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.044642857142857144	0.0
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.028571	0.02857142857142857	0.02857142857142857	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.0744047619047619	0.0
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.0744047619047619	0.0
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.0375	0.03967511503458029
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	0.0
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.049999999999999996	0.007300133835947395
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	0.0
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08928571428571429	0.0
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.05952380952380952	0.05952380952380952	0.0
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.044642857142857144	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08928571428571429	0.0
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.044642857142857144	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11904761904761904	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.