FROZEN PREDICTION

Navy vs Florida Atlantic

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Navy by 5.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentAway data unavailable

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.3309 · 80% margin interval -22.3 to 11.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11968253968253968	-0.23315575153576368
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04488095238095238	-0.11143771716192678
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.028571	0.02857142857142857	0.02857142857142857	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.0748015873015873	-0.12111966686117173
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.0748015873015873	-0.12004384206393312
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.0375	-0.022688962283280233
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	0.0758248214368093
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.049999999999999996	0.10489139669545494
Team talent	Measured	Data unavailable	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	-0.02425709447477237
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08976190476190476	-0.185871894534187
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.05952380952380952	0.05984126984126984	-0.1524879899630268
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04488095238095238	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08571428571428572	-0.03120041113621
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04488095238095238	-0.09135013130865466
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11968253968253968	-0.2565938036407639

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.