FROZEN PREDICTION

Louisiana Tech vs LSU

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Louisiana Tech by 1.3

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.4592 · 80% margin interval -18.0 to 15.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11968253968253968	-0.2756463573766593
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04488095238095238	-0.0002579164211836127
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.028571	0.02857142857142857	0.02857142857142857	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.0748015873015873	-0.16960975556717905
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0744047619047619	0.0748015873015873	-0.21634903098970631
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.0375	0.050540682451378716
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	0.165985507772491
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.049999999999999996	-0.08203045126183015
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	0.19800230913518102
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08976190476190476	-0.185871894534187
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.05952380952380952	0.05984126984126984	-0.000337348846486063
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04488095238095238	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.085714	0.08928571428571429	0.08571428571428572	-0.03120041113621003
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044642857142857144	0.04488095238095238	-0.00022890356727303662
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11904761904761904	0.11968253968253968	-0.0004849983173274841

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.