FROZEN PREDICTION

Southern Miss vs Auburn

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Southern Miss by 4.3

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.3702 · 80% margin interval -21.0 to 12.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11886792452830189	0.11968253968253968	-0.2755086287831004
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.04488095238095238	-0.06125037331645286
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.028571	0.029716981132075472	0.02857142857142857	0.030262292325180077
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.07429245283018868	0.0748015873015873	-0.18568627342131672
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.07429245283018868	0.0748015873015873	-0.15139296124761295
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.0375	-0.054314250879032036
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	0.1259737582411588
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.049999999999999996	-0.14316907213788974
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	0.13504369056222404
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08915094339622641	0.08976190476190476	-0.18577040616751933
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.059433962264150944	0.05984126984126984	-0.08380170210159885
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.04488095238095238	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.085714	0.08915094339622641	0.08571428571428572	-0.0311533161760044
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.04488095238095238	-0.09127737386129212
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11886792452830189	0.11968253968253968	-0.0006222619920427941

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.