FROZEN PREDICTION

Charlotte vs Ole Miss

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Ole Miss by 5.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.6713 · 80% margin interval -10.9 to 22.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11886792452830189	0.11945288753799392	-0.07901282910755429
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.04479483282674772	0.009047365689961808
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.028571	0.029716981132075472	0.02986322188449848	0.05850127918474657
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.07429245283018868	0.0746580547112462	0.00028270834730441396
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.07429245283018868	0.0746580547112462	-0.1153538269151956
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.0375	0.0442910281697566
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	0.15843680521104847
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.049999999999999996	0.018058225804712027
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.0625	0.13387674428865742
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08915094339622641	0.08958966565349544	0.000330377023407491
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.059433962264150944	0.05972644376899696	0.012395792006480251
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.04479483282674772	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.085714	0.08915094339622641	0.08571428571428572	-0.0311533161760044
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.044575471698113205	0.04479483282674772	0.0002368487116270121
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11886792452830189	0.11945288753799392	0.2565338280174855

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.