FROZEN PREDICTION

Cal Poly vs San José State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

San José State by 14.8

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsStrongly leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesStrongly leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.8727 · 80% margin interval -1.9 to 31.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.114286	0.12345013477088948	0.11428571428571428	0.2615324055981896
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.042857	0.04629380053908356	0.04285714285714286	0.0195316795600771
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.028571	0.03086253369272237	0.02857142857142857	0.0742860088093707
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.071429	0.07715633423180593	0.07142857142857142	0.15118236802115526
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.071429	0.07715633423180593	0.07142857142857142	0.16878071214111323
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.042857	0.03214285714285714	0.04285714285714286	0.06526607289517614
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.071429	0.05357142857142857	0.07142857142857142	0.05487479324191802
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.057143	0.04285714285714286	0.05714285714285714	0.022637727108971342
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.071429	0.05357142857142857	0.07142857142857142	0.05341917121227434
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.085714	0.09258760107816712	0.08571428571428572	0.25094192563481565
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.057143	0.06172506738544474	0.05714285714285714	0.049444425182443845
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.042857	0.04629380053908356	0.04285714285714286	0.06428571428571428
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.085714	0.09258760107816712	0.08571428571428572	0.3747566050213973
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.042857	0.04629380053908356	0.04285714285714286	0.014301347947644497
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.114286	0.12345013477088948	0.11428571428571428	0.13293871651860134

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.