FROZEN PREDICTION

North Dakota State vs Air Force

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Air Force by 0.5

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionAway data unavailable

Team talentNot used — data unavailable

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesHome data unavailable

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.5141 · 80% margin interval -16.2 to 17.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11968253968253968	0.12380952380952381	-0.011669986562658302
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.04488095238095238	0.04642857142857143	0.013315637422621075
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.028571	0.02857142857142857	0.02857142857142857	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0748015873015873	0.07738095238095238	-0.004422009457199366
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0748015873015873	0.07738095238095238	-0.0422481089035187
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.0375	0.03214285714285714	0.02018363655341919
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.0625	0.05357142857142857	-0.015703785293668393
Returning production	Measured	Data unavailable	0.057143	0.049999999999999996	0.04285714285714286	0.029380990471023046
Team talent	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.071429	0.0625	0.05357142857142857	0.0
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.08976190476190476	0.09285714285714286	-0.004090891435064234
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.05984126984126984	0.06190476190476191	0.006831231097246343
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.04488095238095238	0.04642857142857143	0.0
Tough schedules	Data unavailable	Measured	0.085714	0.08571428571428572	0.09285714285714286	-0.2785714285714286
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.04488095238095238	0.04642857142857143	-0.0014878731872747311
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.11968253968253968	0.12380952380952381	-0.0031524890626285773

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.