FROZEN PREDICTION

New Mexico State vs Hawai'i

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

New Mexico State by 5.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-09T06:26:39.256689-05:00 · Snapshot 2 · Home win probability 0.3476 · 80% margin interval -21.8 to 11.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 8, 2026 · 6:43 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.114286
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.042857
`close_game_wins`	0.028571
`defense_ppg`	0.071429
`offense_ppg`	0.071429
`preseason_portal`	0.042857
`preseason_recruiting`	0.071429
`preseason_returning`	0.057143
`preseason_talent`	0.071429
`quality_wins`	0.085714
`recent_form`	0.057143
`road_neutral_wins`	0.042857
`sos`	0.085714
`statement_wins`	0.042857
`win_pct`	0.114286

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.12380952380952381	0.12380952380952381	-0.24140461577652447
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.04642857142857143	0.04642857142857143	0.003732471575182049
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.028571	0.02857142857142857	0.02857142857142857	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.07738095238095238	0.07738095238095238	-0.10993765305891269
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.07738095238095238	0.07738095238095238	-0.14169172577089093
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.03214285714285714	0.03214285714285714	0.020321080847386142
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.05357142857142857	0.05357142857142857	0.03205690156305881
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.04285714285714286	0.04285714285714286	0.06603053386950931
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.071429	0.05357142857142857	0.05357142857142857	0.009130787788183131
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.09285714285714286	0.09285714285714286	-0.19265222768594423
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.057143	0.06190476190476191	0.06190476190476191	-0.054910180156761385
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.04642857142857143	0.04642857142857143	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.085714	0.09285714285714286	0.09285714285714286	-0.29508336260447005
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.042857	0.04642857142857143	0.04642857142857143	-0.04738303842551844
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.114286	0.12380952380952381	0.12380952380952381	-0.13317657876818698

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.