FROZEN PREDICTION

Louisiana vs USC

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

USC by 3.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T21:04:43.017877-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.6187 · 80% margin interval -12.7 to 20.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11441441441441443	-0.06661596884774199
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.042905405405405404	-0.025291444621978642
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07150900900900901	-0.0743728770500396
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07150900900900901	0.015393821016677411
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.03547297297297297	-0.049276035867178936
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0958992772568764
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05912162162162163	0.12990198109595538
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.0472972972972973	-0.05845531125922303
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05912162162162163	0.10355084050945136
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08581081081081081	0.004780294443199065
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05720720720720721	-0.011363620806357486
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.042905405405405404	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08108108108108109	0.13441753448968377
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.042905405405405404	0.0017386117530157896
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11441441441441443	0.0036837511304165377

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.