FROZEN PREDICTION

Rutgers vs Boston College

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Boston College by 1.4

Why this pick?

Game controlNegligible effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessNeutral effect

Scoring punchNegligible effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsNeutral effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesNeutral effect

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-10T23:46:22.723878-05:00 · Snapshot 4 · Home win probability 0.5427 · 80% margin interval -15.3 to 18.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 10, 2026 · 11:46 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.1136724960254372	0.000000000000000013877787807814457
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.04262718600953895	-0.005140307634342527
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07104531001589826	0.0
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07104531001589826	0.00000000000000005551115123125783
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.03547297297297297	-0.007068498526511488
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	-0.03608529318546183
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	-0.03293394936309739
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	-0.052336663631827825
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	-0.017264497031091095
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.0852543720190779	0.0
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0568362480127186	0.0568362480127186	-0.007034561106340008
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.04262718600953895	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.0852543720190779	0.0
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.04262718600953895	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.1136724960254372	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.