FROZEN PREDICTION

Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Virginia Tech by 6.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsNeutral effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesNot used — data unavailable

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-10T23:46:22.723878-05:00 · Snapshot 4 · Home win probability 0.6894 · 80% margin interval -10.2 to 23.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 10, 2026 · 11:46 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11441441441441443	0.11441441441441443	0.07108548287006966
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042905405405405404	0.042905405405405404	0.02414466799621401
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07150900900900901	0.07150900900900901	0.036054415133400644
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07150900900900901	0.07150900900900901	0.13927944832951172
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.03547297297297297	0.05738335621977045
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	-0.03792987886709563
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.0837354396246312
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	0.0499742447873356
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.1036487987999571
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08581081081081081	0.08581081081081081	0.0
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05720720720720721	0.05720720720720721	0.03304221351984975
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042905405405405404	0.042905405405405404	0.0
Tough schedules	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.081081	0.08108108108108109	0.08108108108108109	0.0
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042905405405405404	0.042905405405405404	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11441441441441443	0.11441441441441443	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.