FROZEN PREDICTION

Texas Tech vs Oregon State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas Tech by 7.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Previous-season performanceModerately leans away

Recruiting strengthModerately leans away

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-10T23:46:22.723878-05:00 · Snapshot 4 · Home win probability 0.2800 · 80% margin interval -24.2 to 9.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 10, 2026 · 11:46 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.11441441441441443	-0.20247925190044427
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042905405405405404	-0.061850873312159924
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07150900900900901	-0.14147621841506094
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07150900900900901	-0.07607125281852921
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.03547297297297297	-0.09426806671265764
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	-0.14323009764041264
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	-0.06444510129951513
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	0.008177603692473084
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	-0.03951847785889136
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08581081081081081	-0.17761406503140156
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0568362480127186	0.05720720720720721	-0.08462527976622729
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042905405405405404	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08108108108108109	-0.029791680331331866
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042905405405405404	-0.08727448887666053
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.11441441441441443	-0.24511195904688654

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.