FROZEN PREDICTION

Grambling vs TCU

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

TCU by 9.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-10T23:46:22.723878-05:00 · Snapshot 4 · Home win probability 0.7683 · 80% margin interval -7.1 to 26.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 10, 2026 · 11:46 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.11346251912289648	0.10810810810810811	0.07519772251293663
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.04054054054054054	0.03849053750155368
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.02836562978072412	0.02702702702702703	0.013717693034692852
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.0709140744518103	0.06756756756756757	0.04651574511512651
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.0709140744518103	0.06756756756756757	0.05137606019332233
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.04054054054054054	0.05977218854708328
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.05405405405405406	0.11272041802797353
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.06756756756756757	0.14376446735349302
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.05405405405405406	0.045270325630231055
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.06756756756756757	0.1401293396629531
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08509688934217237	0.08108108108108109	0.05753994685748122
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.05673125956144824	0.05405405405405406	0.047745599092208366
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.04054054054054054	0.060810810810810814
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08509688934217237	0.08108108108108109	0.09188497276207214
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.04054054054054054	0.014870382053851244
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.11346251912289648	0.10810810810810811	0.004739541396707764

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.