FROZEN PREDICTION

Cal Poly vs San José State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 2 · Independent

Open this immutable run

San José State by 14.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesStrongly leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-10T23:46:22.723878-05:00 · Snapshot 4 · Home win probability 0.8653 · 80% margin interval -2.3 to 31.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 2
Engine version: 3.7.0-frozen-classification
Evidence cutoff: Sep 10, 2026 · 11:46 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.10810810810810811	0.2488843110649399
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04054054054054054	0.017736438901502276
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	0.07078985032933058
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.06756756756756757	0.1437380161940896
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.06756756756756757	0.16067587719943094
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.04054054054054054	0.06173817706300446
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05405405405405406	0.023691164740755735
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.06756756756756757	0.05190858820181435
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05405405405405406	0.021414066184162077
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.06756756756756757	0.0505316484440433
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08108108108108109	0.23939943391383478
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05405405405405406	0.04617246398711549
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04054054054054054	0.060810810810810814
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08108108108108109	0.35856722695025317
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04054054054054054	0.012702406764196969
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.10810810810810811	0.12511686925636656

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.