FROZEN PREDICTION

Houston vs Texas Tech

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas Tech by 2.0

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect
Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect
Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable
Defensive toughnessSmall effect
Scoring punchModerately leans away
Transfer portal impactSmall effect
Previous-season performanceModerately leans home
Recruiting strengthSmall effect
Returning productionSmall effect
Team talentSmall effect
Big-game winsNeutral effect
Recent formSmall effect
Wins away from homeSmall effect
Tough schedulesNeutral effect
Statement winsNeutral effect
WinningNeutral effect
Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-13T16:47:43.739832-05:00 · Snapshot 99 · Home win probability 0.5615 · 80% margin interval -14.6 to 18.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used
Configuration
Revision 3
Engine version
3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff
Sep 13, 2026 · 8:35 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor keyNormalized share
adj_margin0.108108
avoid_bad_losses0.040541
close_game_wins0.027027
defense_ppg0.067568
offense_ppg0.067568
preseason_portal0.040541
preseason_previous_performance0.054054
preseason_recruiting0.067568
preseason_returning0.054054
preseason_talent0.067568
quality_wins0.081081
recent_form0.054054
road_neutral_wins0.040541
sos0.081081
statement_wins0.040541
win_pct0.108108
Retained calibration/contextFrozen value
versionprovisional-all-slates-policy-v1
calibration_kinddocumented_policy
validation_statusnot_historically_validated
applied_home_field_points2.5
applied_fcs_baseline_z-1.5
residual_scale13.0
residual_scale_sourcedocumented_policy_not_validated
intercept0.0
difference_coefficient7.0
home_field_coefficient2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

FactorHome evidenceAway evidenceNormalized shareHome effective shareAway effective shareWeighted difference
Game controlMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.11923688394276630.1192368839427663-0.03995844894316935
Avoiding bad lossesMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0447138314785373650.044713831478537365-0.004362640896704066
Close-game gritData unavailableData unavailable0.0270270.027027027027027030.027027027027027030.0
Defensive toughnessMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.074523052464228940.07452305246422894-0.023026107686564583
Scoring punchMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.074523052464228940.07452305246422894-0.09777232945022388
Transfer portal impactMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0304054054054054070.0304054054054054070.0057833169762366715
Previous-season performanceMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.040540540540540540.040540540540540540.05839088166330926
Recruiting strengthMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.050675675675675680.050675675675675680.0292047319752352
Returning productionMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.040540540540540540.04054054054054054-0.04330235860014327
Team talentMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.050675675675675680.050675675675675680.038130757966001315
Big-game winsMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.089427662957074730.089427662957074730.0
Recent formMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.059618441971383150.05961844197138315-0.02877180085247924
Wins away from homeMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0447138314785373650.0447138314785373650.036058773371872285
Tough schedulesMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.089427662957074730.089427662957074730.0
Statement winsMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0447138314785373650.0447138314785373650.0
WinningMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.11923688394276630.11923688394276630.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.