FROZEN PREDICTION

Coastal Carolina vs Delaware

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Delaware by 1.8

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans away

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans away

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-13T16:47:43.739832-05:00 · Snapshot 99 · Home win probability 0.5564 · 80% margin interval -14.8 to 18.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 13, 2026 · 8:35 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	-0.03383555772738596
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	-0.0043659811741201884
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.029704232534421216	0.030382086985088444
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	-0.053470584118178226
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	-0.009279339171466103
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	0.029742773020645707
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.0001659877067648058
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	-0.0579287616770279
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.10825589650035816
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	-0.05771709961242831
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	-0.00004338081202971168
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05940846506884243	-0.0040340010214544204
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	-0.00005901693678008607
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	-0.041574371102111915
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.000012616523345183612
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	-0.0001799167910036814

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.