FROZEN PREDICTION

Mercer vs Georgia Tech

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Georgia Tech by 9.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-13T16:47:43.739832-05:00 · Snapshot 99 · Home win probability 0.7698 · 80% margin interval -7.1 to 26.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 13, 2026 · 8:35 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.10810810810810811	0.14429907849314766
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04054054054054054	0.029434821549162077
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	0.010158453555452099
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.06756756756756757	0.14533612866037446
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.06756756756756757	0.039821522717482155
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.04054054054054054	0.0724786228760154
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05405405405405406	0.10731196614206065
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.06756756756756757	0.13767278451430923
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05405405405405406	0.03512128761154556
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.06756756756756757	0.12344371318002496
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08108108108108109	0.017966212736124157
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05405405405405406	0.0002616288567446612
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04054054054054054	0.044113233197530605
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08108108108108109	0.18451576560719846
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04054054054054054	-0.002792524242264352
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.10810810810810811	-0.07523781611234781

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.