FROZEN PREDICTION

Western Kentucky vs Indiana

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Indiana by 14.5

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-13T16:47:43.739832-05:00 · Snapshot 99 · Home win probability 0.8681 · 80% margin interval -2.1 to 31.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 13, 2026 · 8:35 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.1192368839427663	0.36439095111050845
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	0.14396714959123408
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07452305246422894	0.235137793022108
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07452305246422894	0.11636038461930912
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	0.022802792649161713
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.09727576540011866
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.055609964830067374
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.104517563383799
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.03178383180133788
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08942766295707473	0.09170472289808528
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05961844197138315	0.20674594041138653
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08942766295707473	-0.05215023410018643
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	0.13482066001949256
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.1192368839427663	0.37431108358434717

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.