FROZEN PREDICTION

Ball State vs Liberty

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Liberty by 4.9

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-13T16:47:43.739832-05:00 · Snapshot 99 · Home win probability 0.6471 · 80% margin interval -11.8 to 21.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 13, 2026 · 8:35 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	0.03304804644064062
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.06108031283127301
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	-0.00044679539683953714
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	0.16952911610728133
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	-0.00698935266088211
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	-0.009363465580573653
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.028056530633666338
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.014799996905685682
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05077902483326152
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.03927373453232711
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	0.00004338081202971168
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05961844197138315	0.010445485340800233
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.00005901693678008607
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	0.0205653496947681
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	-0.06718552650286845
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	0.0001799167910036814

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.