FROZEN PREDICTION

Montana vs Oregon State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oregon State by 8.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-13T16:47:43.739832-05:00 · Snapshot 99 · Home win probability 0.7527 · 80% margin interval -7.8 to 25.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 13, 2026 · 8:35 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.10810810810810811	0.11614015770750852
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.04054054054054054	0.046774487925762956
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.04054054054054054
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.06756756756756757	0.12565855698041692
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.06756756756756757	0.08836802940968999
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.04054054054054054	0.008586740090924617
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05405405405405406	0.034467356974616906
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.06756756756756757	0.09304630767627041
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05405405405405406	0.10568232518659915
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.06756756756756757	0.10543993991508521
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08108108108108109	0.017599846736528854
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05405405405405406	-0.004134281609395024
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.04054054054054054	0.044054216260750526
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08108108108108109	0.1682125989697044
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.04054054054054054	-0.003017327749142179
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.10810810810810811	-0.07607689707570126

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.