FROZEN PREDICTION

Tulane vs Kansas State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Kansas State by 11.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-17T22:12:41.560235-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.8061 · 80% margin interval -5.4 to 27.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	0.20385261102361893
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.08937701963861755
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.029704232534421216	-0.029488496191409367
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	0.14057765312882667
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	0.2150810182571069
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	0.010189653720036027
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.014126254952888022
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.023784309329818537
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.07850499544774173
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.020808229012116656
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	0.0766595250098765
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05940846506884243	0.14777046659226076
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	-0.00005901693678008607
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	-0.06606319667935914
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.13459585651261471
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	0.1869756250011699

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.