FROZEN PREDICTION

Kent State vs Ohio State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Ohio State by 6.1

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-17T22:12:41.560235-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.6808 · 80% margin interval -10.6 to 22.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	0.040043897026781836
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.07412213969304267
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	-0.030382086985088444
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	0.07524224519764675
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	0.03418638101088608
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	-0.04379072535197105
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.13516434697462
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.14189154037517973
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.006542082953978484
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.1738348139627101
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	-0.052285939638927956
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05961844197138315	0.09852648897480969
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.00005901693678008607
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	-0.13777752493765197
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	-0.000012616523345183612
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	0.0001799167910036814

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.