FROZEN PREDICTION

Northern Iowa vs Iowa

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Iowa by 15.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-17T22:12:41.560235-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.8889 · 80% margin interval -0.8 to 32.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.10810810810810811	0.19469337376584966
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04054054054054054	0.0816021289962407
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	0.0700290367319499
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.06756756756756757	0.1453361286603745
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.06756756756756757	0.06527459773030998
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.04054054054054054	0.09104031640927022
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05405405405405406	0.13883874182049807
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.06756756756756757	0.13461957738338348
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05405405405405406	0.06876628566057774
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.06756756756756757	0.1213394251969881
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08108108108108109	0.17086123559414906
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05405405405405406	0.12313505546231907
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04054054054054054	0.044113233197530605
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08108108108108109	0.09806264721693723
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04054054054054054	0.0643803857372589
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.10810810810810811	0.2977549391272998

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.