FROZEN PREDICTION

Marshall vs Missouri State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Missouri State by 6.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentModerately leans away

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-17T22:12:41.560235-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.6799 · 80% margin interval -10.6 to 22.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	0.18411076667252027
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	-0.0002184541430146139
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.029704232534421216	-0.029488496191409367
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	0.1188109321054967
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	0.11238075441292311
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	0.025226277858251347
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.011799552952827877
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	-0.030488827393300826
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.0897589357673833
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	-0.05005688580367529
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	0.03556324943787227
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05940846506884243	0.0653988429549077
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	-0.00005901693678008607
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	0.1142567458036521
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.06718552650286845
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	-0.0001799167910036814

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.