FROZEN PREDICTION

Michigan State vs Notre Dame

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Notre Dame by 10.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-17T22:12:41.560235-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.7785 · 80% margin interval -6.7 to 26.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.1192368839427663	0.12595944734901038
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	0.03926376807033656
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07452305246422894	0.010313435656557499
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07452305246422894	0.12661046558597672
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	0.019060160377397127
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.08188058342128632
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.07922348402490526
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04719645559655902
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.07368414162184417
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08942766295707473	0.14220404934847317
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05961844197138315	0.051378215807998645
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	0.14156233935596543
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08942766295707473	0.06176968663842044
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	0.06741033000974626
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.1192368839427663	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.