FROZEN PREDICTION

Louisiana Tech vs Baylor

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Baylor by 4.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-18T20:37:46.003549-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.6465 · 80% margin interval -11.8 to 21.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	0.06954634210637545
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.06539685789963454
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	-0.030382086985088444
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	0.06809186441187504
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	-0.08429581694745372
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	0.04323717929853127
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.02598820377685501
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.04975072532524877
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.005763263554695329
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.08810759756312758
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	0.00004338081202971168
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05961844197138315	0.06153417359305066
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.00005901693678008607
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	-0.010321461820321301
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	-0.000012616523345183612
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	0.0001799167910036814

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.